Models for the spread of infection via pairing at parties

Research Report SRR95-026

Models for the spread of infection via pairing at parties

D.J. Daley and J. Gani

Abstract: This paper describes some models for the spread of infection through a fixed population of size 2M through pair-formation at a sequence of parties. Each individual, classified as either a susceptible or an infective, attends a sequence of parties at each of which M pairs are formed, with every individual belonging to exactly one pair. Infection can be transmitted only in `mixed pairs' consisting of a susceptible and an infective. In the simplest version the susceptible in each mixed pair becomes an infective. In more complex versions, transmission occurs with probability \beta independently for each pair, and pairs of individuals may persist unchanged for several parties. The models are compared on the one hand with a discrete time simple epidemic model using exact computation, and on the other with deterministic versions of the process.

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