Emergency services personnel may soon be able to predict areas most at risk from tsunamis, thanks to mathematical modeling at the Australian National University and Geoscience Australia.

ANU mathematician Steve Roberts and colleagues are developing a model to predict the run-up height of tsunamis and how far inland the waves would strike. Roberts' model, ANUGA, solves involved shallow water wave equations, more complex non- linear differential equations that use parameters including water depth and wave momentum to calculate the wave height at particular points along the coast.

The model, ANUGA, is expected to put more science into evacuation plans and has the potential to save thousands of lives.